YIKES — “YIELD CURVE INVERTS: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005,” by Yahoo Finance’s Brian Cheung: “The market’s most closely watched part of the yield curve inverted today, and if its record over the last half decade is any indicator, the U.S. could be headed for a recession soon.

“Shortly after 6 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dipped below the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury as the 10-year fell 1 basis point below the 2-year. The yield curve inversion has a strong track record of predicting a recession; each of the last seven recessions (dating back to 1969) were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year. … Yields came down precipitously in August amid a mix of global concerns: President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on China, an Argentinian election renewed worry over its debt crisis, and protests escalated in Hong Kong.” Yahoo Finance

— THE DOW NOSEDIVES … IT’S DOWN 614 points, or 2.33%.

— JUST SAYING: At around 12:11 p.m., the Dow was down 666 points.

FUN FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE DATA … Newly filed fun … Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) got $12,763 in Houston Rockets basketball tickets from political consultant Jeff Roe and banker Robert Marling. (hat tip: Anthony Adragna) … Sen. JOE MANCHIN’S (D-W.Va.) house boat is worth between $100,000 and $250,000. … TOMMY TUBERVILLE, the former football coach who is running for Senate in Alabama, made $20,000 from ESPN. …

… SEN. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah) is still very rich. He reported assets of somewhere between $71.6 million and $257 million. Marriott paid him $1.4 million in director fees in 2018, and he got $1.8 million from his Goldman Sachs IRA. He has a physical gold bullion worth between $250,000 and $500,000. …

… SEN. BEN SASSE (R-Neb.) got $601,276 in royalties from Javelin, the talent agency that repped his book. … JAIME HARRISON, who is trying to unseat Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), got $271,813 in salary from the DNC.

WE’VE GOT POLLS … POST AND COURIER poll of South Carolina: Biden 36%, Warren 17, Sanders 16, Harris 12, Buttigieg 5, Booker 4, Gabbard 2, Everyone else: 1 or less. Post and Courier

Good Wednesday afternoon.

NEW CNN CONTRIBUTORS … Our own LAURA BARRÓN-LÓPEZ, Mark McKinnon, Aisha Moodie-Mills and Elliot Williams.

DIPLOMATIC CRISIS WITH SWEDEN AVERTED? — CNN’S LAUREN SAID-MOORHOUSE and PER NYBERG: “US rapper A$AP Rocky has been found guilty of assault and handed a conditional sentence after he was involved in a street brawl in Stockholm. … The imposition of a conditional sentence means that A$AP Rocky — whose real name is Rakim Mayers — will not have to serve any further jail time but will be subject to a probationary period of two years.” CNN

OVERSIGHT BATTLES — ANDREW DESIDERIO and KYLE CHENEY: “Judge rejects House Dem request to link McGahn, grand jury lawsuits”: “[I]n an 11-page ruling, D.C.’s federal District Court Chief Judge Beryl Howell said the connections between the two suits are ‘too superficial,’ and decided that the McGahn case would be randomly assigned to a federal judge. … It’s a blow to House Democrats as they inch toward the prospect of impeachment proceedings.” POLITICO

— DARREN SAMUELSOHN: “Trump offers to try again in lawsuit over New York tax returns”: “Attorneys for Donald Trump, a powerful House committee and New York state have reached agreement on a new path for handling their fight over the president’s state tax returns, according to a Wednesday court filing.

“Under the deal, Trump’s lawyers will file a new amended lawsuit by Monday spelling out their case for why a temporary restraining order is needed … The joint stipulation agreement reached between the lawyers also spells out a new briefing schedule on Trump’s lawsuit, including a proposal for oral arguments in mid-September.” POLITICO

IMPEACHMENT WATCH … Rep. DEB HAALAND (D-N.M.) became the latest House Dem to call for an impeachment inquiry today.

THE LATEST ON GUNS — WSJ’S REBECCA BALLHAUS, ANDREW RESTUCCIA and NATALIE ANDREWS: “Trump Advisers Are Wary as President Considers Gun Proposals”: “President Trump’s public push for gun-control measures is causing consternation among conservatives and some of his advisers …

“At least so far, Mr. Trump doesn’t appear to have been swayed by the concerns, and the president has indicated privately to aides that he wants to be seen taking action in response to back-to-back mass shootings earlier this month. Aides said he remains interested in pushing for legislative action to expand background checks and prevent mentally unstable people from possessing guns. … The White House for the moment appears unlikely to issue a broad executive order on gun laws, instead focusing on legislation the president could support on the Hill.” WSJ

— HAPPENING THIS WEEKEND … JOHN BRESNAHAN: “Gun control groups to rally in all 50 states to pressure GOP”: “Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund and Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America — both funded by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg — will also air nearly $1 million of TV and digital ads aimed at key GOP senators.” POLITICO

2020 WATCH — MAGGIE SEVERNS: “Progressive group launches $10 million online voter registration drive”: “ACRONYM’s new program — which is currently being tested in Virginia’s down-ballot elections — will target Arizona, Texas, Georgia, and Florida. The group is aiming to register and mobilize more than 100,000 young and minority voters online, reaching them via Snapchat, Instagram and other digital platforms. …

“In addition to registering voters, ACRONYM will try to use peer pressure to encourage people to vote by launching a tool called ‘Formation’ that allows people to easily look up friends’ voter registration data, which is publicly available information.” POLITICO

— FUN STORY: “This Is How The 2020 Democratic Candidates Practice Self-Care,” by HuffPost’s Sarah Ruiz-Grossman

THE POLICY PRIMARY — “Elizabeth Warren Suggests She’d Repeal the ’94 Crime Bill,” by The Daily Beast’s Gideon Resnick: “‘I think the devastation from the ’94 crime bill has now been well-documented,’ Warren responded. ‘And there are huge parts of that that need to be swept away. It was just wrong. And it needs to be changed, needs to be rolled back, needs to be repealed.’” Daily Beast

— “Gillibrand suggests support for mandatory buyback of assault weapons,” by Quint Forgey: POLITICO

ONLY THE BEST PEOPLE — “‘Absolute Amateur Hour’: Team Trump Mangles Messages to Iran,” by The Daily Beast’s Erin Banco and Asawin Suebsaeng: “The Trump administration keeps sending conflicting and contradictory messages to Iran about its terms for new negotiations, multiple U.S and European officials tell The Daily Beast. And the ensuing chaos has vexed the president, complicated diplomatic efforts for American allies abroad, and utterly baffled policymakers at home. …

“For several months, the United States has been actively attempting to pass messages, via allies, to the Iranians in an effort to move closer to beginning formal diplomatic talks with Tehran. However, diverging opinions within the Trump administration are foiling the nascent diplomatic process.” Daily Beast

ON THE WORLD STAGE — FROM 30,000 FEET … NYT’S ED WONG: “For two and a half years, President Trump has said he is finally doing in Asia what he asserts his predecessor, Barack Obama, failed to achieve with a strategic pivot: strengthen American influence and rally partners to push back against China.

“But as violence escalates and old animosities are rekindled across Asia, Washington has chosen inaction, and governments are ignoring the Trump administration’s mild admonitions and calls for calm. Whether it is the internal battles in India and Hong Kong or the rivalry between two American allies, Japan and South Korea, Mr. Trump and his advisers are staying on the sidelines.

“The inability or unwillingness of Washington to help defuse the flash points is one of the clearest signs yet of the erosion of American power and global influence under Mr. Trump, who has stuck to his “America First” idea of disengagement, analysts say.” NYT

AFTERNOON READ — The NYT is out with The 1619 Project, a major look at the start of slavery in America on its 400th anniversary, including a special issue of the magazine, a special section of the newspaper and a podcast. Intro The 1619 Project

NIKOLE HANNAH-JONES with the table-setter: “America Wasn’t a Democracy, Until Black Americans Made It One: Our founding ideals of liberty and equality were false when they were written. For generations, black Americans have fought to make them true.” NYT Magazine

HUAWEI LATEST — WSJ’S JOE PARKINSON, NICHOLAS BARIYO and JOSH CHIN in Kampala, Uganda: “Huawei Technicians Helped African Governments Spy on Political Opponents: Employees embedded with cybersecurity forces in Uganda and Zambia intercepted encrypted communications and used cell data to track opponents, according to a Wall Street Journal investigation.”

MEDIAWATCH … NEW POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL: “Too easy or too tough? Voters split on Trump media coverage,” by Quint Forgey: “Thirty-seven percent of respondents believe the media is ‘too tough’ on Trump, while the same percentage believe the media is ‘not tough enough.’ Fifteen percent think the media’s treatment of Trump is ‘just right’ … The responses are split sharply along party lines … A majority of survey respondents, 67 percent, said they believe it is the media’s responsibility to draw attention to a politician’s racist statements.” POLITICOThe poll

— AWFUL MILESTONE: “Family still holding out for hope at 7-year mark of Syrian disappearance of Marine veteran Austin Tice,” by Marine Corps Times’ Todd South

— WAPO’S DAVE WEIGEL on Bernie’s war on the press: “Sanders has a bone to pick with the media”

The NYT has poached Taylor Lorenz from The Atlantic to join the Styles section’s “culture of tech” team. The announcement

WaPo’s Damien Paletta has been promoted to economics editor.

BuzzFeed’s Virginia Hughes has been promoted to deputy EIC.

IN MEMORIAM — “Paul Findley, Congressman Behind War Powers Act, Dies at 98,” by NYT’s Katharine Seelye: “Mr. Findley spent 22 years in Congress. When first elected in 1960 he promised to fight ‘creeping socialism,’ but his views soon moderated and occasionally veered to the liberal side, making him part of a breed of Republicans more common then and almost nonexistent today. …

“Mr. Findley was an early critic of the Vietnam War and in 1973 helped write the War Powers Resolution … Mr. Findley was also known for his vocal advocacy of involvement with the Arab world, including Yasir Arafat and the Palestine Liberation Organization.” NYT

SPOTTED: HUD Secretary Ben Carson leaving Dulles in a black SUV late Tuesday night.

SPOTTED this morning at a Black Economic Alliance forum on the future of work, sponsored by Goldman Sachs and hosted by Lisa and David Grain at their Martha’s Vineyard home: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Rep. Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.), Steve Bumbaugh, Lisa Opoku, Charles Phillips, Darren Walker, James Manyika, Bishop T.D. Jakes, Elizabeth Alexander, Robert Raben, Spencer Overton, Joyce Brayboy, Anthony Coley, Gwen Adolph, Robyn and Tony Coles, Wes Moore, Glenn Hutchins and Gabi and Arthur Sulzberger.



Source link

LEAVE A REPLY